2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Hunter Goodman 6 HRs · 2 Nick Kurtz 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 4 Corbin Carroll 4 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 4 HRs · 6 Jake Bauers 4 HRs · 7 Tyler Soderstrom 4 HRs · 8 Marcus Semien 4 HRs · 9 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 10 Brandon Marsh 3 HRs · 11 Brooks Lee 3 HRs · 12 Cedric Mullins 3 HRs 1 Hunter Goodman 6 HRs · 2 Nick Kurtz 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 4 Corbin Carroll 4 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 4 HRs · 6 Jake Bauers 4 HRs · 7 Tyler Soderstrom 4 HRs · 8 Marcus Semien 4 HRs · 9 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 10 Brandon Marsh 3 HRs · 11 Brooks Lee 3 HRs · 12 Cedric Mullins 3 HRs
Parker Messick
Parker Messick LHP CLE
123 matchups scored · 14 game days
10 HRs Allowed
8.1% HR Rate (Pool)
12.8% Overall HR/FB
2.73 FIP
3.1 xFIP
-0.37 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.71
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
12.8%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
52th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
64.5%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.73
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
12th pctile
3.1
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.37
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
30th pctile
8.1%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
123
Pool Matchups
10
HRs Allowed (Pool)
7
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
8.1%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 15 2 1 6.7% 0.5 94.2mph 105.1mph 28.0° 399ft Flat -1.4pp
Last 15 24 3 2 8.3% 0.67 96.2mph 105.3mph 22.5° 385ft Flat +0.2pp
Last 30 51 6 4 7.8% 0.67 96.3mph 103.6mph 29.8° 378ft Flat -0.3pp
Batted-Ball Damage
107 tracked BBE from 123 pool matchups
97.2
114.1
69
0
102.8
28.3°
378
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-10 Amed Rosario 109.5mph · · · ·
2026-06-10 Trent Grisham 101.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-05 Joc Pederson 109.3mph · · · ·
2026-06-05 Corey Seager 105.1mph 105.1mph 28° 399ft Yes
2026-06-05 Ezequiel Duran 103.0mph · · · ·
2026-05-30 Connor Wong 108.3mph · · · ·
2026-05-30 Jarren Duran 107.0mph 105.6mph 17° 371ft Yes
2026-05-30 Willson Contreras 105.8mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
14 days · 10 total HRs
HRs Allowed
10 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-05 Corey Seager #117 44 Globe Life Field 105.1mph 28.0° 399ft
2026-05-30 Jarren Duran #127 47 Progressive Field 105.6mph 17.0° 371ft
2026-05-19 Spencer Torkelson #112 43 Comerica Park 95.8mph 36.0° 380.0ft
2026-05-13 Zach Neto #173 26 Progressive Field 107.8mph 38.0° 361.0ft
2026-05-08 Byron Buxton #115 29 Progressive Field 103.5mph 27.0° 400.0ft
2026-05-03 Tyler Soderstrom #23 43 Sutter Health Park 103.0mph 24.0° 379.0ft
2026-04-27 Jonathan Aranda #36 50 Progressive Field 103.6mph 26.0° 373.0ft
2026-04-05 Dansby Swanson #93 39 Progressive Field 100.6mph 28.0° 380.0ft
2026-04-05 Ian Happ #108 38 Progressive Field 107.5mph 25.0° 382.0ft
2026-04-05 Matt Shaw #130 35 Progressive Field 95.2mph 34.0° 355.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 424 31.6% -1.9 82.0 31.3° 2
Changeup 336 25.0% -0.4 81.8 2.6° 0
Sinker 222 16.5% -2.7 85.3 15.7° 1
Curveball 148 11.0% -0.4 76.8 21.9° 0
Slider 110 8.2% +0.2 79.7 15.0° 3
Cutter 102 7.6% +1.2 74.0 27.1° 2
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
64.5%
64.5%
All Scored Matchups
123 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-10 Anthony Volpe #214 23 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-10 José Caballero #199 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-10 Cody Bellinger #136 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-10 Trent Grisham #121 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-10 Amed Rosario #88 48 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-10 Paul Goldschmidt #75 51 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-10 Ben Rice #23 64 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-05 Ezequiel Duran #196 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-05 Danny Jansen #192 31 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-05 Josh Jung #177 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-05 Evan Carter #158 38 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-05 Corey Seager #117 44 ⚪ D · — 💥
2026-06-05 Jake Burger #115 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-05 Brandon Nimmo #110 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-05 Joc Pederson #55 56 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-30 Nick Sogard #263 16 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-30 Connor Wong #253 20 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-30 Andruw Monasterio #250 21 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-30 Caleb Durbin #249 22 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-30 Isiah Kiner-Falefa #237 26 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-30 Wilyer Abreu #219 32 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-30 Ceddanne Rafaela #212 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-30 Jarren Duran #127 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-30 Willson Contreras #92 53 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-24 J.T. Realmuto #257 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-24 Adolis García #220 32 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-24 Brandon Marsh #192 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-24 Trea Turner #158 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-24 Bryson Stott #84 50 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-24 Alec Bohm #77 52 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-24 Edmundo Sosa #71 54 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-24 Bryce Harper #15 70 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-24 Kyle Schwarber #1 89 🟢 A 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-19 Wenceel Pérez #235 18 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-19 Kevin McGonigle #188 32 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-19 Matt Vierling #170 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-19 Spencer Torkelson #112 43 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-05-19 Hao-Yu Lee #102 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-19 Riley Greene #101 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-19 Jahmai Jones #81 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-19 Dillon Dingler #76 50 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-19 Zack Short #66 53 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-13 Logan O'Hoppe #231 16 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-13 Nolan Schanuel #211 20 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-13 Josh Lowe #203 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-13 Oswald Peraza #202 22 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-13 Jo Adell #201 22 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-13 Yoán Moncada #188 24 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-13 Zach Neto #173 26 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-13 Jorge Soler #102 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-13 Mike Trout #66 39 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-08 Victor Caratini #225 10 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-08 Luke Keaschall #216 11 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Austin Martin #196 16 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Matt Wallner #188 18 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Trevor Larnach #167 21 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-08 Josh Bell #128 26 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-08 Ryan Jeffers #124 27 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-08 Byron Buxton #115 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-08 Brooks Lee #87 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-03 Jacob Wilson #132 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Brent Rooker #111 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Max Muncy #89 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-03 Lawrence Butler #82 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-03 Jeff McNeil #57 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-03 Nick Kurtz #43 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Tyler Soderstrom #23 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-03 Carlos Cortes #10 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-03 Shea Langeliers #9 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-27 Taylor Walls #128 17 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-27 Chandler Simpson #127 17 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-27 Nick Fortes #108 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-27 Cedric Mullins #98 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-27 Ben Williamson #96 28 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-27 Yandy Díaz #77 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-27 Jonny DeLuca #61 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-27 Jonathan Aranda #36 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-27 Junior Caminero #30 54 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Isaac Paredes #128 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Jeremy Peña #123 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-21 Yainer Diaz #97 42 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-21 Joey Loperfido #91 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-21 Carlos Correa #81 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-21 Jose Altuve #71 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Christian Walker #27 61 🔵 C+ ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-21 Cam Smith #17 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Yordan Alvarez #3 78 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Blaze Alexander #127 26 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-16 Coby Mayo #116 31 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-16 Leody Taveras #110 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-16 Johnathan Rodríguez #106 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-16 Taylor Ward #98 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Pete Alonso #51 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-16 Samuel Basallo #35 59 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Jeremiah Jackson #34 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-16 Gunnar Henderson #23 67 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-11 Nick Allen #233 15 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-11 Ozzie Albies #186 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-11 Michael Harris II #104 41 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-11 Austin Riley #102 45 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-11 Marcell Ozuna #93 43 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-11 Jurickson Profar #59 43 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-11 Ronald Acuna Jr. #31 53 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-11 Drake Baldwin #17 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-11 Matt Olson #16 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-05 Nico Hoerner #228 23 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-05 Matt Shaw #130 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-04-05 Kyle Tucker #117 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-05 Ian Happ #108 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-04-05 Carson Kelly #102 38 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-05 Pete Crow-Armstrong #100 46 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-05 Dansby Swanson #93 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-05 Seiya Suzuki #78 47 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-05 Michael Busch #47 51 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-03-30 Mookie Betts #104 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-30 Michael Conforto #80 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-30 Will Smith #48 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-30 Tommy Edman #45 38 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-03-30 Andy Pages #39 45 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-03-30 Freddie Freeman #34 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-30 Max Muncy #22 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-30 Teoscar Hernandez #14 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-30 Shohei Ohtani #1 64 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·

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